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Big edges don’t exist: A Poker Analogy

I didn’t have time before my trip to Las Vegas to write another blog post on the theme of poker and trading so here it is now. In this blog, I’d like to talk about some similarities that show how both poker and trading are more difficult than they seem. The aim in both pursuits […]

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The Trading Education of a Poker Player

As I’m currently planning my upcoming pilgrimage to Vegas to overdose on poker for 10 days, I thought I’d share some musings about the similarities and differences between poker and trading. This was actually the source of the two most important insights I have ever had about trading. My first trading epiphany occurred many years […]

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A Study in Green – Oil on Canvas

Before I trot off on my vacation, I thought I’d share some Auction Profile charts on Crude Oil taken this morning along with my analysis at various points during the day. First, I take my bias from longer term charts and, in the case of oil, I have a long bias from the daily chart […]

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On Vacation

I am on vacation from Friday 26th, July through Sunday, August 10th.  If you have questions or comments during this time, I probably won’t answer them till I get back. Have fun trading the Holiday chop!

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Trading and Blackjack

Professional Blackjack players have a tiny but significant edge against the House, which is why they are quickly banned once the casino identifies them.  The source of this edge is card-counting.  The goal of card-counting is to identify the composition of the remaining cards in the shoe and to bet bigger when the deck is […]

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Learn To Lose

If I were to offer you a choice of two different trading systems with the following qualities, which would you prefer? Ignore differences of account volatility – it’s not germane to the main point I wish to make. System 1 has a win rate of 40% and returns 40% annually. System 2 has an 80% […]